ANALYSIS OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL LEVELS IN SHAPING SAUDI ARABIA’S STANCE ON THE POSTPONEMENT OF NORMALIZATION WITH ISRAEL, 2020—2025

Abstract

The postponement of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel during 2020–2025 is noteworthy because, despite the regional normalization trend initiated by the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia chose to delay normalization even though it could gain strategic benefits, including stronger security cooperation, support for Vision 2030, and economic and technological partnerships. This study aims to explain how domestic and international factors interacted in shaping Saudi Arabia’s decision. Using an exploratory qualitative approach, this research applies the Two-Level Game theory and relies on secondary data. The findings show that domestic factors played a more decisive role in delaying normalization. These factors include the preferences of the royal elite, the need to maintain Saudi Arabia’s legitimacy as the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, the Palestinian issue, and public opposition to normalization without meaningful progress toward a Palestinian settlement. At the international level, Saudi Arabia faced incentives from the United States and Israel, concerns over Iran’s regional influence, and opportunities for security, economic, and technological cooperation. However, these incentives were unable to overcome domestic constraints. The study also demonstrates that the interaction between domestic and international pressures shaped Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy choices. Domestic considerations narrowed the government’s win-set, making postponement a strategy to balance international interests with domestic demands rather than a permanent rejection of normalization.